Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Don't Burn the Puig

There seems to be some serious outrage coming from the curmudgeonly oldey timey baseball folks regarding Yasiel Puig's appearance on the NL Final Vote ballot for the All Star Game. Now, I think Tim Hudson clearly had a point when he stated that ESPN and Major League Baseball are pushing for Puig to win. Of course they are. He's a young, exciting, fun player. He's good for business. Who's going to get more eyeballs on that game Puig or Freddie Freeman?

The old guard has been coming out in droves to say how it would be ridiculous for Puig to play in the game based on only 33 games so far. Now, I could write this entire post about how despite the attempts at making "this one count", the All Star Game is just a scrimmage that's played for fun. But I won't do that (yet). I won't talk about the fact that Puig would be the most exciting addition to the game, I won't mention that Puig is already a star. I won't even talk about some of the putrid "all stars" of seasons past that were voted in based solely on named recognition.

What I will do is make the argument that Puig has been more valuable to his team than the rest of the field.

Like I had mentioned in my AL awards post, this isn't about sustainability, it's about performance. Puig has a .495 BABIP. Meaning that half of the balls he hits in play are basehits. That's going to regress and it's going to regress HARD. His line for the seasons, however, stands at .409/.436/.667, with a measly 3.6 BB%. Being that impatient, it's going to be quite difficult for Puig to remain the juggernaut he has been so far in 2013.

My point is none of that matters. Right now, he's the best hitter in the universe.

Let's just compare him with the rest of his competition:
Ian Desmond .278/.323/.495  3.2 WAR
Hunter Pence .265/.309/.458 2.3 WAR
Adrian Gonzalez .298/.351/.482 1.6 WAR
Freddie Freeman .305/.384/.459 1.4 WAR

In just 33 games, Yasiel Puig has amassed a 2.1 WAR. The only player who has been able to open a significant lead in more than double the games has been Desmond, who is having a fine season.

When taking all of the factors into account, if you are being objective, you really have to vote for Puig. He will make the game most exciting, he will help the National League team win the most, and frankly he deserves it the most.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

National League Midseason Awards

NL MVP:
Paul Goldschmidt. After having a breakout season in 2012, Goldschmidt has continued what he started last year. Also making me consider fantasy baseball suicide after dropping him instead of Brandon Belt last April.
Anyway, Goldy's .302/.380/.553 line along with 20 homers and 8 steals put's him slightly over David Wright or Buster Posey in my mind. I also needed an excuse to include another picture from a Mike Myers movies.





NL Rookie of the Year:
Yasiel Puig. Like Iglesias, Puig will definitely not end the season batting over .400. Unlike Iglesias, Puig has the tools and talent to be a legitimate all star.  I think he can settle in at .320/.380/.550. Which are still crazy good numbers. He also pimps a HR like an absolute boss.












NL CY Young:
Since the theme of the NL awards seems to be young phenoms, I have to go with Matt Harvey. His ERA and FIP both stand at 2.00 even and through 117 innings, he's struck out 10.15/9, leading all NL starters. Wainwright, Lee, and Kershaw all make legitimate cases and could be considered. Since Harvey is the most interesting and strikes the most guys out, he's going to be my pick. He's also posing nude in the ESPN body issues. Which is unrelated, but goddamn I bet his glutes are rock solid.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

American League Midseason Awards

It's pretty much smack dab in the middle of the season, so let's take a look at who I think would be winning the major awards at this juncture.

AL MVP:
Sorry Chris Davis, you're having a great year, but Miguel Cabrera is some sort of android. An android that runs on tequila and bad decisions, but an android none the less. Thus far Miggy has gone .369/.456/.672, which are just stupid numbers. Numbers rarely seen this side of Barry Bonds. I was firmly in the Trout camp in 2012, but Cabrera is the hands down choice this year.

AL Rookie of the Year.
Jose Iglesias, I guess. What he's doing is absolutely unsustainable. Iglesias boasts a .465 BABIP, so he's going to come crashing down to earth. In 133 AAA plate appearances this year he hit .202/.262/.319. Compare that to his .409/.455/.530 in 145 big league PAs and you know something is fishy. However this isn't about sustainability or real value. It's about performance. So, with those numbers and a lack of other good options, good on you Jose.

AL Cy Young
Max Scherzer. 12-0 is impressive. I know wins are wholly overrated, and indicate very little about a
pitchers actual performance, however to be 12-0 at this point in the season requires quite a bit of dominant pitching and good luck. So, still impressive. Scherzer has also managed to strike out 10.69 guys per 9 innings, while keeping his ERA at a lovely 3.10 (2.68 FIP). He was also dynamite in Wayne's World. 



If I have the time, I'll do a rundown of the National League tomorrow. Hint: Puig across the board!

Beer Status: Shipyard Monkey Fist IPA

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

ZOMBIES!!

I've been reading the book World War Z (Yes, mostly because the movie is out, deal with it), so I've had zombies on the brain (not literally, although I do think I would have a tasty, tasty brain). I thought with this post I would explore some Major League Baseball's walking dead. Guys who have shown no signs of life in several years, but somehow slowly saunter out of the dugout moaning in 2013. 

Vernon Wells. Zombie since 2011. 
Vernon Wells has tried to come back from beyond the grave several times but always manages to get pulled back with the undead. After alternating brilliant seasons (2003: .909 OPS; 2006: .899 OPS) with disappointing ones (2007 : .706 OPS; 2009: .711 OPS) with several seasons bouncing in between, Vernon cemented his place among the damned in 2011. He's had a few good 2 weeks runs, but hasn't managed an OPS above .682 in the past 3 seasons. 

Placido Polanco: Zombie Since 2012. Polanco has managed to put up some big seasons in his career, his 2005 (.331/.383/.447)  and 2007 (.341/.388/.458) seasons especially come to mind. He's been around the league, bouncing between the Cards, Phillies, and Tigers before settling in Miami this year. Placido joined the ranks of reanimated brain eaters in a slow drop off since 2007. But I can only really fairly call him a zombie since 2012, when he finished the year with a wRC+ of 71 (league average is 100). He seems to have really shed any sort of  human form this year and become a full fledged ghoul, bottoming out with a wRC+ of 57.

Yuniseky Betancourt. Zombie since forever. Betancourt has been nothing but a maligned walking corpse since his major league debut. In his very best of seasons 2006 and 2007, he was a slightly below average hitter and an average fielder (according to Fangraphs fielding tool). It's been been a black hole of terrible pretty much ever since, never eclipsing a .700 OPS since. He has even managed a .579 OPS so far in 2013. 

Ichiro Suzuki. Zombie since 2011. Ichiro has been depressingly consistent since 2011, he seemed to get a bit of a spark after being dealt to the Yankees in 2012, however it didn't quite carry over to this year. He still holds some value as a player because his defense is still above average. However at the plate, he joined the living dead quite suddenly. His free swinging approach really hampers his value now that he can't slap any pitch for hit. His batting averages have remained somewhat respectable, but his inability to get on base in another manner (OBPs of .310, .307, and .307) and his total lack of power ( SLGs of .335, .390, and .346) have made him a one trick (zombie) pony not worth riding. 


Friday, June 21, 2013

Nice guys finish last.

“Where have all the bastards gone?” – Green Day, Letterbomb.

Watching the Yankees offense lately has become more of a chore than a leisurely evening activity. It’s little more than an exercise in futility and frustration.  They suck. Hard.

It’s a pretty drastic change from the Yankees I’ve known the two decades of my fandom. They were always characterized by players like Paul O’Neill, or Nick Swisher, or even Bobby Abreu. The Yankees would wear you down. Take a pitch, foul a couple tough sliders off, work a walk. The Yankees would make a pitcher throw 60 pitches through 3 innings, then pounce. The Yankee teams I knew may not have always great pitching. They may have had some defenses that rivaled beer league softball teams, but they could always hit.

Look at the team now. Vernon Wells, Ichiro Suzuki, Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix. A conglomerate of walking has been corpses, or shrug inducing never weres.  This brings me to my real question.

Are you sure you don’t want Alex Rodriguez back?

He’s an absolute tool. He got caught cheating in every facet of his life. He’s lied. He’s cocky. He’s out of touch.  He says the wrong thing. He slaps the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove.  He seems to shrink in the spotlight.

Dude can still hit.

Is he the once in a generation masher he once was? Not even close.  Is he better than the alternative? You bet your gentle puritan sensibilities he is.  The last 3 years he’s put up OPS+ of 123, 119, 112. All above average. Jayson Nix career high is 95. David Adams looks like an over matched rookie. The less I say about Reid Brignac, the better.

A Rod is not going to win any popularity contests. He is never going to be likable. Who cares. I don’t watch baseball for examples of a solid moral fiber. I don’t look to athletes as beacons of citizenship and heroics. You want a hero? Go to a police station, hospital, or fire house. Vernon Wells seems like a hell of guy. He’s hitting .118 in the past 30 games. Bring me the jerk.


Baseball is about winning. If I’m picking my team, I’ll take Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, and Manny Ramirez. You can have the nice guys. 

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Monday, February 27, 2012

Neglectful Me

I haven't really written anything in a while, to be honest there hasn't been much to inspire me. Dozens of guys have reported to spring training in the best shape of their lives, dozens more are just back in the same shape they were in in October. I spend most of my days at work reading updates and reports, flipping through spring training pictures, grinding my teeth in jealously as I subject myself to the pictures sunny, warm weather in Arizona and Florida.  I do, however, take solace in the fact that the start of spring training signals the inevitable approach of summer.

It's interesting to take a look at the career crossroads that many players approach this time of year. Both Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek have ended their long careers his offseason. They were two of the most central figures of the sometimes intense, sometimes violent, but always entertaining Yankees- Red Sox battles of the early 2000's.  They each symbolized the intensity that always came through in those games. Two images that will be eternally etched in my brain from those games are Jorge Posada's look of triumph and the corresponding fist pump after an RBI double off of Pedro Martinez. Equally symbolic of those games is the image of Jason Varitek shoving a fist full of catchers mitt in Alex Rodriguez's face. I guess it is all a bit of a trip that there are players whose entire careers I have watched who are starting to retire.  Means I am starting to get old.

While these catchers of my youth-college years begin to retire. A new generation begins to emerge. Guys like Jesus Montero, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout are going to be the names that kids of the future grow up with, wear their t shirts, ask for autographs, and memorize stats. It's the first time I am realizing how cyclical this all is. Guys comes up, play, get old, retire. It's been happening for ten decades. For one generation Ted Williams was the guy they grew up with and Jim Rice was the young up and comer who made them feel old. For another Don Mattingly was their childhood hero and Andy Pettitte was the player who came along to appreciate as another man with a different skill set in life that is to be appreciated and not necessarily worshipped.

Growing up as a kid in then 90's the Yankees were my religion and Derek Jeter the pope. Now that I have become assimilated into the "real world", I no longer feel the same reverence for ballplayers, I cheer, I am still emotionally involved in every win and loss, but I can't say the players themselves are heros of mine. Just another guy in the world, who happens to be good at something that I am not. Hopefully the best collection of those guys end up on the team I cheer for, but that's about the extent of my reverence these days.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Random Player of the Week: Eric Plunk



When I think of the baseball card collection I had as a kid, Eric Plunk is one of the first guys I think of. It's gotta be those glasses. What a look, man. 

Anyway, Plunk played 14 big league seasons, for the A's, Indians, Yankees, and Brewers, with some actually respectable numbers for a reliever. An ERA a tad under 4,  a K/9 rate of 8.45, and unfortunately a BB/9 rate of 5.06. To be honest, the stats don't matter. Look at those effing glasses. The Wild Thing would be proud. 

Friday, February 10, 2012

Pittsburgh Pirate A.J. Burnett?


As a diehard Yankee fan all I can say is: Oh, please, Oh, please, Oh, please, Oh, pleeeeaaase!!

After a somewhat inconsistent, but overall very decent 2009 debut with the Yankees, that helped bring the 27th World Championship to the Bronx, Burnett has been nothing short of a disaster. He has posted back to back ERAs over 5, with nearly matching FIPs of 4.83 and 4.77. His walk rates are consistently near the tops in the American League. He has made a run for the Bizarro Triple Crown of Pitching (leading the league in walks, HBP, and wild pitches) several times in his career.

When I think of A.J. Burnett, my first thought is of a game in 2006 that I saw him pitch in Toronto. He was, in a word, electric. His fastball was sitting at 98, touching triple digits; his curveball was buckling knees all afternoon. He was damn near unhittable.  It’s a shame that a guy with that much talent and potential was never able put it all together to be the dominant pitcher he could be.

My second thought is to the 2009 World Series, where Burnett pitched two games. A 7 inning, 9 strike out, 1 run on 4 hit gem for a win, and a 2 inning, 6 run clunker. THAT is how I have come to know Burnett. A guy who on any given day has the ability to shut down any lineup in the majors, but also on any day could be in the showers by the 3rd.

I think a trade away from the bright lights and lethal lineups of NY and the AL East, to the cozier pastures of the NL Central would be a great revival for Burnett’s career. It could be a win, win situation.  

Anything that Yankees get back aside from some minor salary relief would be a bonus. With 7 current starters, the Yankees need to free up some roster and payroll space. Burnett would be my personal choice as the ideal pawn to be moved. Even with the Yankees having to eat 75% of his contract.

Hopefully something gets done within the next few days, as spring training is a mere week away. 

Thursday, February 9, 2012

My Favorite Player: Rex Brothers


My new favorite major leaguer is Rex Brothers.
What. A. Name.

It’s a name that invokes power and prestige.
It’s 30% oil tycoon, 45% soap opera star, and 50% rodeo clown. Yes, Rex Brothers is 125% man. 

He is a man that can walk into a hotel bar, pick out the fairest young lass there, point a finger and an ever so dangerous wink, say “Rex Brothers…let me buy you a blueberry martini”, and she would helplessly melt into his hands.

Women want him, men want to be him. Max Power is jealous of his name. 

The Most Interesting Man in The World takes French cooking lessons from Rex Brothers.

To all the Colorado Rockies fans out there, I am truly jealous of your opportunity to cheer for such a man on a daily basis. 

Monday, February 6, 2012

The Rise and Fall of Josh Hamil...Oh Just Stop it Already.

Josh Hamilton fell off the wagon. I still have no idea why I should care. I still have no idea why the media is covering it like they nailed the Kennedy assassination conspiracy. I still have no idea why there was a press conference.

A guy went out to a bar and had a few (maybe a bunch?) Miller Lites and it's the leading story of the night. Everybody's favorite recovering addict must have lost the god he found. At least long enough to knock back a few tall boys.

I don't think this is a Josh Hamilton issue.

I think the sports media has fully created this non-story from start to finish.

Hamilton has been lifted up as a hero, to be saluted and worshipped ever since he bashed his way onto the scene in 2007. His story of addiction, loss, and redemption  has been told, re-told, and re-re-told ad nauseam ever since. Hamilton is supposed to be a role model and an inspiration. This isn't fair to him. He can't be expected take up the mantle of superhero for the world when he still needs an account-abila-buddy. People were looking for the ultimate redemption story with a a Disney movie ending. Hamilton is NOT a hero. Anyone who has watched 10 minutes of Dr. Drew knows that movie is just as likely to end in tragedy as triumph.

So for Josh Hamilton's sake. For my sake. Stop it. I don't care of he drinks.  I don't care if he doesn't drink. Leave the guy alone. Let him be what he is. A ballplayer with a flawed and troubled past, and a difficult future.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Why My Fantasy Baseball Team Sucked: The Story of Unrealized Potential.


My fantasy baseball team sucks.

I research for hours, days, and weeks ahead of drafting. I buy Bill James guides. I develop a strategy. I can rattle off guys’ OBP, OPS, UZR, WAR, and STD’s (I’m looking at you, Jeter).  Yet somehow, I. Still. Suck.  How could this be? How could I possibly put in all this work, acquire all this knowledge and still finish DEAD LAST? Because, I don’t know a damn thing.  Partially anyway.
No one does. No one could possibly know. You can analyze stats, look to see who’s going to rebound, predict who’s going to falter. It’s still all guesswork and voodoo.

I drafted Casey McGhee, breakout star and lucky bastard in 2010. I knew his numbers indicated a regression. I was expecting it. Was I expecting him to be a candidate for 2011 Worst Player of the Year*? Absolutely not. I took risks, tried to pick up guys who looked likely to rebound, or breakout. Almost every single one of them disappointed me. Andre Ethier, Kelly Johnson, Aaron Hill, Derek Jeter, Travis Hafner, Nick Markakis. Crap, crap, and more crap. Sure Derek Jeter rebounded to have a representative 2nd half, was he worth the 6th round pick I used? Nope.

My pitching strategy similarly faltered. Being a keep league, I had some players I wanted to hold over from the previous year’s team. Like Adam Wainwright. Boom. Tommy John, done for 2011. I was stuck with 139 innings of pretty good Roy Oswalt. Worth keeping? Not a chance.  My strategy was to draft underrated high K rate guys, Brandon Morrow, Colby Lewis, Gavin Floyd. None of whom had an ERA under 4.

Was I merely a victim of bad luck? No. I had too many teams (4), got frustrated and didn’t keep up on the waiver wire as I should have.  I got lazy and irritated. So my full heart wasn’t into it.

I am telling myself this year will be different: new focus, new dedication, new strategy.  I am already off to an inauspicious start of having a maximum of 112 games of Ryan Braun (a for sure keeper) and having the privilege to decide between keeping JJ Hardy, Derek Jeter, or Andre Ethier. 

My only hope is that at this time next year I will be able to write a post entitle: “My Fantasy Baseball Team is Mediocre.”

*See first post.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Off Season Blues

We are still a tad less than a month away from Spring Training and my visions for this blog didn't include a lot of "will Bill Hall sign with the Yankees?" talk. So, rather than force a blog entry about the minutia of the off season, here is a photo of A Rod with Ronald McDonald.


Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Random Player of the Week: Gary Disarcina

Gary played 12 years for the Angels as a shortstop, with a few random appearances at 2B and 3B. He managed to put up a .258/.292/.633 triple slash line. Making him a perfect candidate for random player of the week.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Roid Rage


2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun has appealed his 50 game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. For my fantasy team's sake, I hope they reduce the suspension to zero games and award him an extra 5 home runs and a nice fruit basket for all of the trouble. It did get me thinking about the MLB reaction to PED's over the past 20 years. It went from complete indifference, to shock, to rabble rousing outrage almost instantly. Any player who seems to have done a couple of lat pull downs in his life is automatically stripped of legitimacy (see Bagwell, Jeff).  There also seems to be a consensus among the average fan that once you took a steroid you were a 40 home run power machine. For every Ken Caminiti, there is a Larry Bigbie. Many of these admitted PED users were still really not good at baseball.













So, what exactly is my point here?

In 2013 some absolute baseball heavyweights (literally and figuratively) will be up for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza. Will Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, and Piazza (unfairly) experience the same shunning that their peers Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro have experienced? Probably. Should they? I personally do not believe they should. Especially Bonds and Clemens. If Barry Bonds retired after the 1998 season (when by most accounts he starts doing steroids) he would have had 411 home runs and 445 stolen bases. He would have been the ONLY player to ever accomplish that feat. 

Another question I have, what if Barry Bonds hit a ball off of Jason Grimsley and it was caught by Chuck Knoblauch? Three guys who, for all intents and purposes, are guilty of PED use. Does it not count as an out for Clemens? Or should it not count as a putout for Knoblauch? Or should it count as nothing because Bonds shouldn't have made contact?

My bottom line is that the water is too murky to automatically discount these players accomplishments. These players are representatives of their eras warts and all. Up until 1947, baseball did not allow black players. In 1963 the mound was raised for a few years. Amphetamines were common in baseball for decades. Each of these eras have highlights and lowlights and are still represented. I think the players should be judged for their accomplishments in relations to the others of the period.

P.S. If you say that admitted cheaters shouldn't be allowed in, then kick out Gaylord Perry. If you cite the character of players, then boot Ty Cobb and we can talk. 

Thursday, January 19, 2012

What 90's wrestler would AL West teams be?

Texas Rangers
After the Rangers 'close but no cigar' performance in the past two World Series, they have to be perennial bridesmaid Lex Luger. He was in some marquee matches in the 90's; Royal Rumble '94, Wrestlemania X. Even with all this success, the Lex Express never managed to bring home WWF gold. Just like Ron Washington's Texas squad. They've managed to make big headlines (good and bad) and appear in the fall classic, but have yet to win that elusive ring.









Seattle Mariners
The Mariners had a very intimidating pitching staff last year, featuring King Felix, the newest Yankee Michael Pineda, and, at one point,  hilariously named Doug Fister. However despite this intimidating rotation, lost 95 games. So while appearing intimidating, they packed little punch. This makes them Adam Bomb. A guy who was a large intimidating ring presence, yet achieved absolutely no notoriety or success.












Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Angels are a team that has spent some serious cash this offseason, bringing in big time free agents C.J. Wilson and greatest hitter on the planet/also hilariously named Albert Pujols. They also have relied on the guile of manager Mike Scoscia for much of their recent success. For these reasons, they can be none other than Million Dollar Man Ted DiBiase. A guy who out witted and out smarted opponents, DiBiase was a wily competitor. He also was part of the most racist storyline of the 90's when he owned hired his slave servant Virgil.











Oakland Athletics.
Finally, I come to the Oakland A's. They are a team that has seen some success in the earlier part of the decade, but has largely been mediocre. Some years they are pretty decent, some years not so much. They manage to fly under the radar without much fanfare. They are Double J Jeff Jarrett of the 90's. He was ok. Not good, not great. Just J-E double F, J-A double R, E, double T. 

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Yu Darvish, Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford

Let's do a couple of quicks hits across each AL division:

In the West, the Rangers signed Yu Darvish to a six year deal worth about $60 million, with the possibility of another $10m in incentives. This is in addition to the $51 million they had to bid in the posting process.  Seems like an awful lot of money to pay for a pitcher who is essentially a top prospect. He will be filling the recently departed (to the Angels, not in the dead way) C.J. Wilson's spot at the top of the Rangers' rotation. I remain skeptical of the newest super hyped "best Japanese pitcher ever." After surviving through both Hideki Irabu  (pour some out) and Kei Igawa, as well as witnessing the the legend of Daisuke Matsuzaka, I need to be convinced. Maybe he will be the first Japanese import to see long term success as a pitcher, but Dice-K and his mythical gyroball were supposed to serve that function 4 years ago.

The Tigers lineup took a major hit yesterday when it was announced that Victor Martinez will probably miss the entire season with ACL surgery. The lineup looks slightly less imposing with the inconsistent and confusingly named Jhonny Peralta protecting Miguel Cabrera. One can only speculate that this may put them in the market for a bat (Carlos Pena perhaps?).

Carl Crawford had arthroscopic wrist surgery. The Red Sox best hope is that he heals quickly and also remembers how to be a somewhat productive major leaguer. That is, not the offensive blackhole he managed to be in 2011.

Nick Swisher: Muppet of a Man, or Very Manly Muppet?


         





          









                       





Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Worst Position Player of 2011

This is the first post of what will hopefully be more than one post. I will post my random thoughts and hilarious quips about what my Latino friends call beisbol.  I am leading off with a look at the worst position player in the majors last year:

The White Sox sure had their share of under-performers in 2011. Out of the 203 players who had at least 400 AB's last year, they had 4 players rank in the bottom 20 in WAR and wOBA. For my friends who don't buy into the "Bill James bullshit" (as America's greatest actor Phillip Seymour Hoffman said as Art Howe in Moneyball) that means they sucked, like a lot.

The worst offender of all, was a guy who I always considered to scream consistency, Adam Dunn.  He managed a minuscule .159/.292/.569 batting line. To put that in perspective, Luis Sojo retired with a career .261/.297/.650 line.

The Big Donkey didn't do himself any favors in the field either. In only 37 games in the field (35 at 1B, 2 in the OF) he managed to be worth -6 runs. Taking into account all his offensive woes and defensive butchery, Dunn managed to be worth 2.9 wins less than your average replacement player (minor league call up).

How did he manage to be so awful? Well, bad luck had something to do with it. A BABIP 50 points lower than his career average will definitely hurt the numbers. Dunn, throughout his career, has been known for three things: striking out a lot, walking, and hitting for big time power. In 2011, he struck out more, walked less, and didn't show any of that power.

Over the past two seasons, Dunn has swung at nearly 10% more pitches out of the strike zone than he has averaged over the rest of his career, what hurt him in 2011 was that he made contact with 53% of those pitches, as opposed to only 46% the year before.

Basically what Dunn needs to have a rebound year, is to lay off pitches outside the zone, and a reversal in luck. To be honest, the entire White Sox organization needs a reversal of luck, especially that rat bastard Gordon Beckham who has been instrumental in my fantasy baseball suckitude the past two seasons. Fool me once Gordon, shame on you, fool me twice.. STILL SHAME ON YOU, LEARN TO HIT A FASTBALL!